catchfire.finance All digests

Daily network digest

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Directed information-flow networks for this session, covering Cryptocurrency, Foreign exchange. Each class is estimated independently over a trailing one-year window; the tables below rank the assets carrying the most influence within their own network.

Jump to: Cryptocurrency · Foreign exchange

Cryptocurrency

REPUSD was the most central name, carrying 4.91× the influence of an average node across 215 assets.

assets
215
Density
0.123
Clustering
0.338
Diameter
2

Most central

Ranked by PageRank within the session's directed network. “vs average” shows influence relative to a node with no advantage — 1.00× would mean perfectly ordinary.

Symbol#PageRank vs averageReceives fromSends toStrongest outgoing
REPUSD 1 0.02284 4.91× 43.0% 18.7% LPTUSD, GNOUSD, ALICEUSD, SRMUSD, ZENUSD
XDCUSD 2 0.02030 4.36× 45.3% 15.0% STORJUSD, NKNUSD, SGBUSD, API3USD, HNTUSD
TSDUSD 3 0.01809 3.89× 53.7% 36.4% CGLDUSD, EGLDUSD, QTUMUSD, SCUSD, LINKUSD
KRLUSD 4 0.01440 3.10× 36.9% 10.7% PAXUSD, JASMYUSD, TRUUSD, XYOUSD, XDCUSD
XRPBTC 5 0.01438 3.09× 34.6% 21.5% AVAXUSD, VTHOUSD, OXYUSD, FETUSD, ATOMUSD
BTCJPY 6 0.01316 2.83× 26.6% 25.7% QNTUSD, LTCUSD, PNKUSD, IOTXUSD, NEXOUSD
TLOSUSD 7 0.01128 2.42× 23.8% 14.5% NEOUSD, QNTUSD, LTCBTC, BOBAUSD, DIAUSD
PAXGUSD 8 0.01090 2.34× 29.4% 8.9% CVXUSD, ASMUSD, MKRUSD, XAUTUSD, FXUSD
BTRSTUSD 9 0.01090 2.34× 23.8% 28.5% LINKUSD, XLMUSD, LTCBTC, BOSONUSD, XRDUSD
DUSKUSD 10 0.01059 2.28× 30.4% 11.2% CVCUSD, JSTUSD, BTTUSD, MIRUSD, PNKUSD

Rising influence vs 2024-10-15

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
XDCUSD 0.020300.00572 +0.01458
REPUSD 0.022840.00873 +0.01412
TSDUSD 0.018090.00436 +0.01373
TLOSUSD 0.011280.00419 +0.00709
BTCJPY 0.013160.00648 +0.00668

Falling influence

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
BTRSTUSD 0.010900.03649 -0.02559
HNTUSD 0.008280.02088 -0.01260
ETHBTC 0.009360.02182 -0.01246
ORCAUSD 0.003690.01124 -0.00755
LTCBTC 0.008750.01463 -0.00588

Foreign exchange

RUBEUR was the most central name, carrying 6.71× the influence of an average node across 644 pairs.

pairs
644
Density
0.030
Clustering
0.328
Diameter

Most central

Ranked by PageRank within the session's directed network. “vs average” shows influence relative to a node with no advantage — 1.00× would mean perfectly ordinary.

Symbol#PageRank vs averageReceives fromSends toStrongest outgoing
RUBEUR 1 0.01042 6.71× 13.7% 5.3% JPYMYR, BRLCAD, USDNOK, SGDBRL, XAGINR
BRLCOP 2 0.00895 5.77× 2.5% 0.8% BRLCHF, USDBRL, BRLARS, JPYBRL, BRLJPY
DKKRUB 3 0.00844 5.44× 12.9% 5.6% JPYMYR, USDNOK, BRLCAD, XAGAUD, SGDBRL
EURRUB 4 0.00742 4.78× 14.5% 7.8% JPYMYR, JPYILS, BRLCAD, ETBGBP, SEKNOK
GBPSCR 5 0.00657 4.23× 7.9% 1.9% RUBNOK, EGPJPY, PLNJPY, RUBPLN, CNYJPY
CHFPKR 6 0.00589 3.79× 2.8% 2.2% THBHKD, JPYCZK, CZKJPY, SGDNOK, NOKEUR
NOKRUB 7 0.00588 3.78× 0.5% 1.7% RUBSEK, ARSBRL, RUBCHF, ARSCOP, ARSCLP
BRLCLP 8 0.00538 3.46× 17.0% 6.7% XAGUSD, NGNUSD, CLPMXN, XAGCNY, XAGEUR
EURUZS 9 0.00537 3.46× 0.8% 0.3% JPYRUB, RUBJPY
ILSNOK 10 0.00531 3.42× 5.0% 3.6% TWDSEK, KRWSEK, INRSEK, CHFUSD, MYRHKD

Rising influence vs 2024-10-15

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
BRLCOP 0.008950.00271 +0.00624
NOKRUB 0.005880.00029 +0.00558
GBPSCR 0.006570.00106 +0.00552
ILSNOK 0.005310.00042 +0.00489
AUDSEK 0.005240.00067 +0.00457

Falling influence

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
SCRUSD 0.002130.00989 -0.00776
SCRGBP 0.001260.00844 -0.00718
ZARTRY 0.002080.00743 -0.00535
NOKAED 0.003160.00848 -0.00531
ILSPLN 0.002780.00794 -0.00517

How these numbers are produced

Transfer entropy measures how much knowing one asset's past reduces uncertainty about another's future, beyond what that asset's own past already explains. Unlike correlation it is directional, so an edge from A to B means A's moves carry information about B's next move — not merely that they move together.

Each night we estimate transfer entropy across three universes — roughly 1,500 US common stocks, 350 cryptocurrencies and 550 currency pairs — over a trailing one-year window, conditioning on a broad market series so that shared market-wide movement is discounted rather than counted as a link. Edges surviving the significance filter form that session's directed network, from which the centrality figures on this page are computed. Coverage differs by class: crypto reaches back to January 2024, equities to August 2025, so older digests may cover fewer classes.

PageRank ranks an asset by how much influence flows into it from other influential assets. In-degree and out-degree are the share of the network sending information to it and receiving information from it. Betweenness captures how often an asset sits on the shortest path between two others.

The volatility watch score is a model estimate of the probability that an asset sees elevated volatility in the coming sessions. It is a research output, not a forecast of price direction, and nothing on this page is investment advice.