catchfire.finance All digests

Daily network digest

Monday, July 8, 2024

Directed information-flow networks for this session, covering Cryptocurrency, Foreign exchange. Each class is estimated independently over a trailing one-year window; the tables below rank the assets carrying the most influence within their own network.

Jump to: Cryptocurrency · Foreign exchange

Cryptocurrency

DESOUSD was the most central name, carrying 5.12× the influence of an average node across 333 assets.

assets
333
Density
0.176
Clustering
0.373
Diameter
3

Most central

Ranked by PageRank within the session's directed network. “vs average” shows influence relative to a node with no advantage — 1.00× would mean perfectly ordinary.

Symbol#PageRank vs averageReceives fromSends toStrongest outgoing
DESOUSD 1 0.01536 5.12× 69.6% 20.5% CBETHUSD, BLZUSD, ETHUSD, RARIEUR, AVTUSD
TEERUSD 2 0.01199 3.99× 54.5% 22.6% REPV2USD, RBNUSD, LITUSD, BTTUSD, ELAUSD
BTRSTUSD 3 0.01086 3.62× 46.4% 23.5% ORNUSD, XRPBTC, RADUSD, ERNUSD, HDXUSD
EULUSD 4 0.00993 3.31× 53.3% 11.7% BOBAUSD, DOGEUSD, GARIUSD, XRPAUD, AERGOUSD
KINUSD 5 0.00922 3.07× 45.5% 54.8% BCHUSD, FLOWUSD, SCRTUSD, KSMUSD, ACSUSD
XRPBTC 6 0.00899 2.99× 47.6% 9.6% RUNEUSD, XDCUSD, TVKUSD, MLNUSD, DOGEUSD
ETHBTC 7 0.00810 2.70× 45.8% 22.6% XDCUSD, BNCUSD, ZECUSD, APTUSD, AUDIOUSD
LTCBTC 8 0.00808 2.69× 41.3% 19.6% BALUSD, TVKUSD, LPTUSD, QIUSD, MASKUSD
REPUSD 9 0.00719 2.39× 41.9% 13.9% HBARUSD, GMXUSD, SGBUSD, LCXUSD, TONUSD
ALEPHUSD 10 0.00649 2.16× 37.3% 14.2% BLZUSD, QTFUSD, TEERUSD, KNCUSD, EOSUSD

Rising influence vs 2024-07-07

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
TEERUSD 0.011990.00314 +0.00885
EULUSD 0.009930.00424 +0.00568
DESOUSD 0.015360.01026 +0.00511
BTRSTUSD 0.010860.00672 +0.00414
HDXUSD 0.005740.00181 +0.00392

Falling influence

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
DIMOUSD 0.002970.01443 -0.01146
TIMEUSD 0.005040.01172 -0.00668
INTRUSD 0.002450.00864 -0.00619
KILTUSD 0.002380.00842 -0.00604
PAXGUSD 0.004650.01045 -0.00580

Foreign exchange

XAUCNY was the most central name, carrying 6.58× the influence of an average node across 623 pairs.

pairs
623
Density
0.014
Clustering
0.337
Diameter

Most central

Ranked by PageRank within the session's directed network. “vs average” shows influence relative to a node with no advantage — 1.00× would mean perfectly ordinary.

Symbol#PageRank vs averageReceives fromSends toStrongest outgoing
XAUCNY 1 0.01056 6.58× 4.2% 2.4% XAUSAR, XAUUSD, XAGCAD, XAUINR, XAUZAR
THBUSD 2 0.00957 5.96× 1.4% 0.8% SEKINR, DKKPKR, MXNUSD, NOKUSD, ZMWZAR
ZARIDR 3 0.00840 5.23× 6.3% 1.9% XAGUSD, XAGJPY, RUBSEK, XAGBRL, XAGCNY
GBPLYD 4 0.00811 5.05× 0.5% 0.3% ZMWUSD, USDZMW
COPMXN 5 0.00788 4.91× 2.3% 1.1% CZKJPY, JPYCZK, SGDNOK, ZARSGD, ZARAUD
XAURUB 6 0.00751 4.68× 5.0% 1.8% USDFJD, FJDUSD, XAUUSD, ZARIDR, ZARTWD
USDZMW 7 0.00750 4.67× 2.7% 0.6% GBPLBP, GBPLYD, MADUSD, MXNPEN
COPBRL 8 0.00740 4.61× 2.3% 1.4% BRLRSD, BRLCAD, KZTUSD, PKRUSD, USDUYU
SEKINR 9 0.00695 4.33× 1.3% 1.6% ZARNOK, ZARMXN, SGDZAR, EGPZAR, AEDZAR
ZMWUSD 10 0.00610 3.80× 2.3% 0.6% GBPLBP, GBPLYD, MADUSD, MXNPEN

Rising influence vs 2024-07-05

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
XAUCNY 0.010560.00175 +0.00882
GBPLYD 0.008110.00075 +0.00736
THBUSD 0.009570.00236 +0.00721
SEKINR 0.006950.00078 +0.00617
ZARIDR 0.008400.00267 +0.00573

Falling influence

SymbolPageRank PreviousChange
BRLCLP 0.001400.00872 -0.00733
BRLMXN 0.000530.00648 -0.00595
RUBNOK 0.003180.00895 -0.00577
ZAREUR 0.000880.00663 -0.00575
TWDTHB 0.000450.00615 -0.00570

How these numbers are produced

Transfer entropy measures how much knowing one asset's past reduces uncertainty about another's future, beyond what that asset's own past already explains. Unlike correlation it is directional, so an edge from A to B means A's moves carry information about B's next move — not merely that they move together.

Each night we estimate transfer entropy across three universes — roughly 1,500 US common stocks, 350 cryptocurrencies and 550 currency pairs — over a trailing one-year window, conditioning on a broad market series so that shared market-wide movement is discounted rather than counted as a link. Edges surviving the significance filter form that session's directed network, from which the centrality figures on this page are computed. Coverage differs by class: crypto reaches back to January 2024, equities to August 2025, so older digests may cover fewer classes.

PageRank ranks an asset by how much influence flows into it from other influential assets. In-degree and out-degree are the share of the network sending information to it and receiving information from it. Betweenness captures how often an asset sits on the shortest path between two others.

The volatility watch score is a model estimate of the probability that an asset sees elevated volatility in the coming sessions. It is a research output, not a forecast of price direction, and nothing on this page is investment advice.